Fed Decisions Really Just Come Down to Guessing
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Alex Pollock, a resident fellow at the American Enterprise Institute and a former banker, demonstrates, as the headline of his article states, the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions "really just come down to guessing." As Alex explains, Fed officials are no more clairvoyant (my term) than other knowledgeable participants in the financial markets. However, because Fed officials act as if they can predict the future, the Federal Reserve has become a very dangerous financial institution and worse, one almost entirely exempt from political accountability.
Principal, Ely & Company, Inc.
Bert Ely has specialized in deposit insurance and banking structure issues since 1981. In 1986, he became an early predictor of the S&L crisis and a taxpayer bailout of the FSLIC. In 1991, he was the first person to correctly predict the non-crisis in commercial banking; in 1992, he predicted an eventual taxpayer bailout of the Japanese banking system.
Bert continuously monitors conditions in the banking and S&L industries, monetary policy, and the growing federalization of credit risk. He has helped to draft legislation to enact the cross-guarantee concept for privatizing banking regulation and its related deposit insurance and systemic risks. He has testified on numerous occasions before congressional committees on banking issues and he often speaks on these matters to bankers and others.
Bert first established his consulting practice in 1972. Before that, he was the chief financial officer of a public company, a consultant with Touche, Ross & Company, and an auditor with Ernst & Ernst. He received his MBA from the Harvard Business School in 1968 and his Bachelor's degree in economics in 1964 from Case Western Reserve University.